Layoffs Down, Hiring Plans Thin: What Employers Should Know Heading Into the Holidays (Oct. 26, 2026)

Government reports tell us what already happened in the job market. Two private trackers help fill in the picture between them: Challenger, Gray & Christmas counts the layoffs and hiring plans companies announce each month, and payroll processor ADP now publishes a weekly read on private-sector hiring. Here's a plain-language look, as of October 26, 2026, at what they show and what it means if you need people before the end of the year.

Layoff announcements keep falling

In its September job cuts report (opens in a new tab), released October 1, Challenger counted 43,281 announced job cuts by U.S. employers. That's down 18 percent from August and 20 percent from September 2025, and the lowest September total since 2022.

Most of this year's cuts have come from technology companies, which announced 165,925 through September. Transportation is the big exception for the industries we staff: its announced cuts nearly tripled from last year. Warehousing cuts, on the other hand, are down 53 percent to 19,881, and retail cuts are down 83 percent.

The holiday hiring surge hasn't shown up

This is the part employers should pay attention to. Companies announced plans to hire 90,787 workers in September, which sounds like a lot until you compare it with the 117,313 announced in September 2025. It's down 23 percent and the lowest September total since 2011.

Challenger said only two retailers, Spirit Halloween and Michaels, had announced seasonal hiring plans so far, a combined 62,000 seasonal hires, compared with 100,800 announced by seasonal employers last September. "We're not seeing the surge of hiring plans that come with the holiday season, which suggests a very cautious approach," said Andy Challenger, the firm's chief revenue officer.

Weekly payroll data points the same way

ADP's NER Pulse weekly estimate (opens in a new tab), released October 20, shows private employers added an average of 18,500 jobs a week in the four weeks ending October 3, down from 26,000 a week in the period ending September 26. ADP's figures are preliminary, but they line up with the slow pace in the September BLS jobs report (opens in a new tab), where employers added just 29,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.2 percent.

What this means for employers

• Low layoffs mean a tight pool of experienced workers. When companies hold on to their people, fewer skilled workers are out looking. As we covered last week, new jobless claims are near their lowest since July.
• Cautious companies can get caught short. If many employers wait to add holiday help, they'll all be looking for the same workers at the same time in November and December. Lining people up now is easier.
• Temp help fits a wait-and-see year. Challenger described companies as being in a "wait-and-see period." Temporary or temp-to-hire workers let you cover the rush without committing to permanent headcount you may not need in January.
• Transportation layoffs can be an opening. With transportation cuts up sharply this year, experienced drivers, dispatchers and logistics workers may be easier to find than they were a year ago.

Coming up this week: ADP's next weekly estimate on October 27, September jobless rates for metro areas, including Monroe and Detroit, on October 28, and new weekly jobless claims on Thursday, October 29. After that come September JOLTS job openings on November 3 and the October jobs report on November 6.

Get ahead of the year-end rush

Aggressive Hiring Group is a woman-owned, family-run staffing agency in Monroe, MI, placing workers for employers nationwide for 12 years. We keep a network of pre-screened industrial, warehouse, logistics, office and technical candidates ready to go, and every one goes through our screening process, including background and reference checks and 10-panel drug screening. Call us at 734.785.8968, Monday through Friday, 9 AM to 5 PM, or request staff online.

Sources: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., September 2026 Job Cuts Report (released Oct. 1, 2026); ADP Research, NER Pulse preliminary estimate for October 3, 2026 (released Oct. 20, 2026), four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, September 2026 (released Oct. 2, 2026). ADP and BLS figures are preliminary and subject to revision.